I’ve been thinking of baseball less as run generation and more as collecting bases. To that end, I’m tinkering with a new stat that I’m calling Self Generated Bases (and sgbAVG). This metric tallies the total number of bases a player creates for himself. This is a more drilled down version of total bases, ignoring all base advances a player takes off another player’s hit. Additionally, the current metric also subtracts for any bases a player eliminates themselves. This includes stolen bases and double plays.
The current formula is:
SGB (Self Generated Base) = Singles + (Doubles*2) + (Triples*3) + (Homeruns*4) + Stolen Bases – Caught Stealing – GIDP
sgbAVG = At bats/SGB
The SGB formula accounts for each base earned on extra bases hits as well as bases stolen. The formula only subtracts 1 for each double play to account for the other runner erased from the base paths, the batter already gets dinged by not successfully reaching base on a GIDP. The result of the formula outputs the total number of bases the player created for themself and works along with Run Expectancy. SGB explores the average base a player can be expected to be on without assistance. Run Expectancy shows that the farther around the circuit a runner is at the start of any at bat, the more likely he is to score in the inning. If a player’s sbgAVG is closer to 2. This means that he averages out to be at second base without needing to be moved ahead with a follow-up batter.
Using a player like Whit Merrifield, who’s sgbAVG is 1.947 allows for the isolated example of Merrifield averaging a double. So he leads off the inning and is immediately on 2nd base. According to run expectancy, Merrifield standing on second base rather than 1st increases his team’s run expectancy with zero outs from 0.831 to 1.068. The difference being expecting to score 4 out of 5 times in that situation to expecting to score every time.
This is the first draft of the metric, I’m going to run some players with similar at bats through the formula, and see how the metric runs. My expectation is that this metric will balance players who hit extra base hits and steal bases against three-true-outcome guys.
Let’s see if it works.